Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2016-2017

Published: August 19, 2016 - 170 Pages

Table of Contents

  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Industry Size and Structure
    • Introduction
      • Table Simba Information's Instructional Materials Segment Definitions
    • Instructional Materials Sales Flatten in 2015
      • Basal Curriculum Moves the Needle in 2015
        • Table Sales of Print & Digital Instructional Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2014-2016P ($ in millions; ranked by 2015 sales)
      • Courseware Generates Growth of 4.7%
      • State-Level Test Market Continues to Flatten
      • Digital Supplements Grow 2.2%
      • Print Supplements Decline
      • Manipulatives Are Made for Hands-on Learning
      • Literacy Push Favors Trade Books
      • Video Use Grows even as Formats Change
      • Classroom Magazines: Strongest Growth Projection
        • Table Market Share of Media Sold to U.S. Classrooms, 2016P (based on market size of $8.56B)
    • Electronic Media Projected to Capture 70% Share in 2016
      • Table U.S. Shipments of K-12 Personal Computers by Operating System
      • Devices Proliferate
      • Google Keeps Improving
      • Samsung Partners in Chromebook Initiatives
        • Table Simba Information's PreK-12 Performance Index ($in 000)
    • Competitive Landscape
      • Pearson Weathers Prolonged Restructuring/Reorganizing
      • McGraw-Hill IPO Remains Pending
      • Rosetta Stone Turns its Attention to Education
      • Ed Tech Startup Activity Was High in 2015
        • Table Q1 2016 K-12 Startup Company Activity
      • M&A Activity Aims to Strengthen Core Missions
        • Table Simba Information's Merger & Acquisition Index, 2015 and H1 2016
  • Enrollment and Demographics
    • Introduction
      • Table Institutional Types and Numbers, 2016
    • Public School Enrollment on the Rise
      • Table Total Public PreK-12 Enrollment, 2015-2024P (# in 000)
      • Table Projected Public PreK-12 Enrollment by Grade, Selected Years, 2014-2024P (# in 000)
    • Enrollment Patterns Vary across the States
      • Table Public School PreK-12 Enrollment by State, Projected % Change, 2015-2024 (#in 000)
    • Private Enrollment Sees Declining Trend
      • Table Private School Enrollment over Time (enrollment numbers in millions)
    • Charter School Enrollment Booms
      • Table Charter School Enrollment over Time (enrollment numbers in millions)
    • Online Enrollment Growing as Virtual Schools Increase
      • Table Charter Schools and Enrollment by State 2014-2015
      • Table Number of Students Enrolled in Full-Time Virtual Schools by State, 2014-2015
    • Homeschooling Hard to Measure
      • Table Homeschooled Students by State
    • High-Poverty Schools Are a Target
    • Schools Growing More Diverse
      • Table Top 10 Home Languages of ELLs
    • Special Needs Students Require Services
      • Table 20 School Districts with Largest ELL Student Populations, 2013-2014
      • Table 20 School Districts with Largest Special Education Student Populations, 2013-2014
    • State-Funded PreK Enrollment Grows
      • Table Preschool Enrollment, 2014-2015 & % Change from 2013-2014 (ranked by enrollment of 3- and 4-year-olds)
  • Policy & Funding
    • Introduction
    • Federal Education Policy Guided by ESSA
      • What ESSA Requires
        • Table Accountability: Then and Now
      • ESSA Implementation Begins
      • Where ESSA Offers Opportunities
    • Federal Funding up in Fiscal 2016
    • Federal Budget for Fiscal 2017 TBD
      • Table U.S. Department of Education Discretionary Spending, FY 2015-FY 2017P (Selected K-12 categories, $ in millions)
    • Title I Targets Low-Achieving Students in High-Poverty Areas
    • Tapping Special Education Funding
    • E-Rate Provides Record Levels of Funding
      • Table 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY 2015 ($ in thousands)
    • State-Level Funding Outlook Improves Slowly
      • Table Services Covered by E-Rate
      • Funding Rises in California
      • Florida's Funding Rise Includes Money for Technology Infrastructure
      • Opportunities Narrow in Some Smaller States
        • Table Percent Change in Spending per Student, 2008-2016 and 2015-2016 (inflation-adjusted)
      • State Funding Trends over Time
    • Local Funding Varies Widely
      • Table FY 2012 50 Largest Instruction and Instruction-Related Expenditures
      • Table Total Preschool State Spending; 2014-2015; & State Spending per Child (ranked by enrollment of 3- and 4-year-olds)
    • State PreK Funding Climbs
      • Funding Opportunities Lead to Procurement
  • Basal Curriculum and Adoptions
    • Introduction
      • Table Segment Definition
    • Segment Size and Investing in the Future
      • Table Basal Curriculum Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2014 vs. 2015 ($ in millions)
      • Getting Personal
      • G-W: Expanding Markets
      • Preparing for Platforms
    • Adoption States and Open Territories Markets
      • Top Disciplines in Open Territories
        • Table Top 8 Disciplines for Textbooks in Open Territories, 2015 ($ in thousands)
      • Going Digital Opens Adoption States
      • Second-Year Math, Social Studies Topped Adoption Opportunity
        • Table Top 8 Disciplines for Textbooks in Adoption States, 2015 ($ in thousands)
    • McGraw-Hill Education Tops 2015 Adoption Publisher Scorecard
      • Table Simba Information's Adoption Publisher Scorecard, 20151 ($ in thousands and rounded; ranked by total sales)
      • Pearson Secures 2nd; HMH in 3rd
        • Table 2016 Leading Sales Opportunity in Adoption States (Total estimated opportunity: $560 million)
    • Adoptions Outlook in 2016 and Beyond
      • California: a Sweet Spot, Eventually
        • Table Approved Programs in English Language Arts/English Language Development for 2016 California Adoption Basic ELA Programs, Grades K-8
      • States Opting for Science
  • Digital Instructional Materials
    • Introduction
      • Table Segment Definitions
    • Courseware Sales Are Increasing
      • Table Courseware Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2014 vs. 2015 ($ in millions)
      • CTE is a Driver of Courseware Sales
      • Courseware is More than Online Courses
    • Digital Supplemental Material Complements Core Curriculum
      • Table Digital Supplements Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2014 vs. 2015 ($ in millions)
      • Table Use of Specific Instructional Software Programs
      • Teacher Survey Reveals Digital Supplemental Use
        • Table Use of Specific Games
    • Video Is Used More; Formats Are Changing
      • Table Video Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2014 vs. 2015 ($ in millions)
      • Table Teachers' Sources for Video Used in Classroom
      • Future of Video
  • Trends
    • Introduction
      • Table Next Generation Science Standards States
      • Fresh Science Programs from McGraw-Hill and School Specialty
    • Confronting and Incorporating OER
      • A View from the Schools on OER
      • Views from Publishers on OER
        • Table Most Common Source for Digital Materials in the Classroom
      • Strength in Depth and Breadth
      • Adapting to OER Proliferations through Aggregation
    • New Ways of Going to Market
      • New Ventures for Vetting Products
        • Table The Businesses of Vetting Instructional Materials
      • Online Marketplaces
      • And Then There Is Amazon
    • Professional Services
  • Conclusions & Outlook
    • Table Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2015 - 2019P ($ in millions; ranked by 2015 segment size)
    • Overall Market Conditions Going Forward
    • Flat Outlook for Basal Curriculum
    • Upward Trajectory for Courseware
    • State Tests Face Significant Change
    • Digital Supplements & Video Expect Growth
    • Print Supplements Decline Projected
    • Manipulatives, Trade Books and Magazines Are Primed for Growth
  • Company Profiles
    • Cambium Learning Group
    • Discovery Education
    • Goodheart-Willcox
    • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
    • K12 Inc.
    • McGraw-Hill Education
    • Pearson
    • Rosetta Stone, Inc.
    • Scholastic Corp.
    • School Specialty
    • Scientific Learning Corp.

Abstract

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2016-2017



After more than a decade of No Child Left Behind and Common Core State Standards, PreK-12 publishers again face change with the passage of the Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015. Schools and educational publishing services are still trying to figure out the needs of students and educators, how best to meet those needs, and what roles the instructional materials industry will play as schools turn increasingly to digital devices as their chief educational resources.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2016-2017
provides the most up-to-date business information not only on the impact of recent changes in education policy but also on the emergence of new technologies and the new applications for traditional technology (print) PreK-12 publishing services market.

As Simba Information navigates the educational publishing services industry's current and likely future trends through 2019, a few watchwords are emerging to describe the changing state of what Simba estimates to be an $8.56 billion market for instructional materials: personalization, adaptive, and augmented reality.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2016-2017 is the latest edition of Simba’s annual comprehensive overview of the PreK-12 publishing services market and the educational resources providers that serve it.

Topics in Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2016-2017 include:
  • Market size by media segment: basal core curriculum, courseware, digital supplements, print supplements, manipulatives, trade books, video, classroom magazines and state summative tests;
  • Drivers of and challenges to growth by segment;
  • Initiatives by traditional publishers to adapt their once-print businesses to a digital future;
  • Focus of ed-tech start-up activity in the first part of 2016
  • Changing demographics of U.S. students;
  • Trends in state funding for education;
  • What subjects schools are spending on;
  • The changing instructional materials adoption landscape;
  • The pace of the uptake of courseware and digital supplements in schools;
  • Is GoOpen a friend or foe?
  • The rise of digital marketplaces;
  • Exclusive 2015 instructional materials adoption data;
  • Competitive analyses of 11 leading publishers;
  • Market segment projections through 2019.

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