College Publishing Market Forecast 2011-2012

Table of Contents

• Methodology
• Executive Summary
• Size and Structure
  • Introduction
    • Table Growth in College Textbook Net Sales, 2000-2010 (in billions; CAGR =7%)
  • College Books Account for 27% of Book Publishing Universe
    • Table Domestic College Instructional Materials Sales in Comparison to Other Publishing Categories, 2008 - 2010 (ranked by 2010 sales; $ in millions )
    • Used Textbooks Show Persistence
      • Table New Textbooks vs. Used Textbooks in the U.S., 2009-2011P ($ in millions)
  • Key Media in College Classrooms
    • Table Share of Media Used in U.S. College Classrooms, 2011P (% share based on $10.19 billion market)
    • eTextbooks Show Strong Growth
      • Table Average Textbook Price* Comparison, New vs. Used, Academic Years,2006 - 2010
    • Average Textbook Prices Increase Moderately
      • Table Simba Information's College Publisher Index, 2009-2010 (New sales revenue $ in millions; ranked by 2010 new sales revenue)
  • Top 10 Publishers Account for 84% of College Market
• Enrollment
  • Overview
    • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education, 1994-2019P (in thousands)
    • Table College Enrollment by Age, 1994-2019P (in thousands)
  • Enrollment by Age
  • Enrollment by Gender
  • Diversity on the Campus
    • Table Total Enrollment in Higher Education by Gender, 1994-2019P (in thousands)
    • Table U.S. Enrollment Numbers by Race, 1994-2019P (Parentheses indicate percent of total enrollment; in thousands)
    • Table Total Higher Education Enrollment by Enrollment Status, 1994-2017P (in thousands)
    • Table Fall 2009 Enrollment by Institutional Type
  • Full-Time vs. Part-Time Enrollment Changes
  • Public vs. Private Enrollment
    • Table Degrees Conferred, 1994-2019P
  • Degree Distribution Shifts
  • Where the Students Will Come From
    • Table Public High School Graduates, 2007-2008
    • Table Public High School Graduates, 2017-2018P
• Funding
  • Introduction
  • Tuition and Total Cost
    • Table Average Tuition and Fee Charges (constant dollars)
  • Aid Makes a Difference
    • Table Higher Education Financial Aid, 1998-1999 to 2009-2010 (in millions of constant $)
  • Various Financing Options Available
    • Table Estimated Federal Aid for Post-Secondary Education, 2012E ($ in thousands)
  • Federal Government Addresses Affordability
  • Pell Grants Important Part of Federal Funding
    • Table Federal Higher Education Programs, FY2010-2012P ($ in millions)
  • More Focus on Community College
  • States Face Financial Issues
    • Table State Appropriations to Higher Education, FY2009-2011 ($ in thousands)
    • Tuition Increases the Norm Across the States
• Textbooks
  • Introduction
    • Table New and Used Book Sales at College Retail, 2008 - 2010 (retail sales estimates; $and units in millions)
  • eTextbooks Expand Variety of Format Offerings
    • New Pilots Sprout
      • Table Reed College iPad Pilot Findings
    • eTextbooks Projected to Grow in 2011
      • Table Book Sales: New, Used and eTexts, 2009 - 2011P (retail sales estimates; $and units in millions)
    • Digital Licensing Grows; Digital Rental Blossoms
  • Open Educational Resources Jockey for Position
    • Connexions and Flat World Knowledge Grow
  • Ten Publishers Command 69.2% of New Units Sold
    • Table Leading Publishers by New Units, 2010 vs. 2009 (units in thousands; ranked by share in 2010)
    • Table Top 20 Disciplines for Textbook Sales, 2010 vs. 2009 ($ in millions)
  • Math Courses Accounted for the Most Textbook Sales in 2010
    • Table Unit Sales Patterns, 2010 (% Change from 2009)
    • Table Mathematics - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions; ranked by total sales)
  • In 9 Leading Disciplines, Pearson Holds Leadership in 7
    • Pearson Is Best-Selling Math Publisher in 2010
    • Pearson Also Leads in English
      • Table English - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions)
    • Pearson, McGraw-Hill Dominate in Biological Sciences
      • Table Biological Sciences - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions)
    • Cengage Pushes Pearson in Psychology
      • Table Psychology - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions)
    • Pearson Teaches the Teachers
      • Table Education - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions)
      • Table Accounting - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions)
    • McGraw-Hill Adds Up in Accounting
      • Table History - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions)
    • Pearson and Cengage Learning Define History as No. 1 and No. 2
      • Table Foreign Languages and Literature - Leading Publishers, 2007 ($ in millions)
    • McGraw-Hill and Cengage Learning Top Foreign Language Sales
      • Table Chemistry - Leading Publishers, 2010 ($ in millions)
    • Pearson Leads in Chemistry
• Multimedia Materials
  • Introduction
    • Table Multimedia Market Share, 2009 - 2011P (New and Used Book retail sales estimates; $and units in millions)
  • Technology Market Expanding
  • Cengage Learning Probes Market with MindTap
  • McGraw-Hill Invests in Technology
  • Wiley Looks for Stronger Tech Component
  • Pearson, Blackboard Take a Page from OER and Tap the Cloud
  • Mobile Moves onto Campuses
• Marketing & Distribution
  • Overview
  • What Students Pay
  • What Textbooks Cost
  • College Stores Still First Stop
    • Table Total College Store Market
  • Online Purchasing of Materials Grows
  • Social Media Has Impact
    • Table Increase In Median Sales Made on Online
  • Used Texts: Wanted, but Limited
  • Textbook Rental Options on the Rise
  • Drivers Toward Digital Content
  • Learning Management Systems Play a Role
  • EReaders and Apps
  • Digital Licensing Programs Launch
  • Digital Licensing Pricing Being Worked Out
• Forecast and Conclusions
  • Overview
    • Table Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2010 2014 ($ in millions)
  • Mobile and Modular
  • Multimedia Materials Show Growth
    • Table Sales Forecast of E-Textbooks, 2010 - 2014 ($ in millions)
• Profiles of Leading College Textbook Distributors and Retailers
  • Barnes & Noble College Booksellers
    • Table Key Statistics: Barnes & Noble College Booksellers
    • Table Financial Overview: Barnes & Noble College Booksellers, 2009-2011 ($ in millions)
  • Blackboard
    • Table Key Statistics: Blackboard
    • Table Financial Overview: Blackboard, 2007-2009P ($ in 000)
  • Cengage Learning
    • Table Key Statistics: Cengage Learning
    • Table Financial Overview: Cengage Learning, FY 2009-FY2011 ($ in 000)
  • Chegg.com
    • Table Key Statistics: Chegg.com
  • Follett Corp.
    • Table Key Statistics: Follett Corp.
    • Table Financial Overview: Follett Higher Education Group, Fiscal 2009-2011 ($ in 000)
  • McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos.)
    • Table Key Statistics: McGraw-Hill Education
    • Table Financial Overview: McGraw-Hill Cos., 2009-2011P ($ in 000)
  • Nebraska Book Co.
    • Table Key Statistics: Nebraska Book Co.
    • Table Financial Overview: Nebraska Book Co., Fiscal 2009-2011 ($ in 000)
  • Pearson Education
    • Table Key Statistics: Pearson Education
    • Table Financial Overview: Pearson PLC, 2009-2011P ($ in millions)
  • John Wiley & Sons
    • Table Key Statistics: John Wiley & Sons
    • Table Financial Overview: John Wiley & Sons, Fiscal 2009-2011

Abstract