Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2021-2022

Table of Contents

• Methodology
• Executive Summary
• Enrollment
  • Introduction
  • Disenrollment Disrupts Education
  • California Illustrates Pandemic Trends
    • Pattern Is Repeated Elsewhere
  • Where Students Went & Departure Impact
  • Public Schools: Numbers & Students
  • Public School Enrollment Growth Slows
    • Table Trends in Public School Enrollment, 2000-2029P
  • Enrollment Patterns Vary Across the States
    • Table Projected Percentage Change in Public Elementary & Secondary Enrollment, 2017 to 2029
  • Birth Rates Will Impact Future Enrollment
  • Private Schools Face Challenges, See Opportunity
  • Catholic School Enrollment Declines Continue
    • Table Catholic School Enrollment Declines, 2016-2020
  • Support for School Choice Grows
  • Increasing Interest in Charter Schools
    • Table Charter School Growth, 2000 to 2018
    • Table Charter Schools by State, Fall 2019
    • Characteristics of Charter Schools
      • Table Charter School Management, 2018-2019
  • Pandemic Leads to Homeschooling Surge
    • Table Homeschooling, 2003-2016
  • Virtual Schools See Bright Future
  • Graduation Rates Inch Up
    • Table Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rates for Public High School Students, 2018-2019
  • Dual Enrollment Offers Opportunities
  • Decline for Students in Poverty
    • Table Title I Schools by State, 2019
    • Students Experiencing Homelessness
  • ELL Population Continues to Grow
    • Table Trends in English-Language Learner Enrollment, 2000-2001 to 2018-2019
    • Table Percentage of Public-School Students who are ELL by State, 2018-2019
  • Special Needs Students Get Services
    • Table Trends in Youth Receiving IDEA Services, 2017-2018 to 2019-2020
  • PreK Progress Stalls
    • Table Enrollment Growth in State-Funded Preschool Programs, 2017-2018 to 2019-2020
    • Table Enrollment & Per-Child Spending in State-Funded Preschool, 2019-2020
    • Pandemic Impacts PreK
  • More Connected Students; Needs Expand
    • Table 3-18-Year-Old Children with Home Internet Access, 2016-2019
• Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2021: Budget & Policy
  • Introduction
  • Policy & Funding History
  • Policy & Funding in the ESSA Era
  • Federal, State & Local Funding Sources
  • Reopening Schools: A New Policy Area
  • Annual Exams Required, Some Flexibility
  • Federal Funding Continues to Rise
    • Table Education Department Appropriations, FY2019-FY2021 (selected K-12 categories, $ in millions)
  • Biden Proposed Ed Funding Increases for FY 2022
    • Table Education Department Appropriations, FY2020-FY2022P (selected K-12, $ in millions)
    • New Take on Title I
    • More Money Proposed for IDEA
    • Increased Support for Community Schools Program
    • Serving English-Language Learners
    • Funding Hikes for Learning Centers & CTE
    • New Programs, New Budget Lines Proposed
  • Stimulus Bills Provide Education Money
    • Pandemic Leads to CARES Act
    • Rethink K-12 Part of CARES Act
      • Table Selected Approved Rethink K-12 Education State Plan Highlights, 2020
    • More Funding from Second Stimulus
    • American Rescue Plan Provides Another Wave of K-12 Funding
      • Table COVID-19 Relief Education Funding ($ in billions)
  • Title I's 50 Largest Allocations
    • Table 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY2019 ($ in thousands)
  • Support for Classroom Connectivity
    • Table E-Rate Applicants Value the Program
    • Moving the Bar on Connectivity Needs
    • Connectivity for Homes as Well as Schools
    • E-rate to Support Cybersecurity
  • Trends Winning Federal & State Support
    • Promoting the Switch to Digital
    • Computer Science Moving from Elective to Requirement
      • Table States with State Plan for Computer Science Education
    • High Schools Teaching Computer Science
      • Table States that Require High Schools to Offer Computer Science Education
    • School Climate Earns More Consideration
    • Career and Technical Education Booms
    • School Choice Movement Continues
  • State Education Funding Overview
  • Adoption States Influence Market & Offer Opportunities
  • Per-Pupil Funding Varies by State & District
    • Table Per Pupil Funding by State, FY 2018
    • Inequities in District-Level Funding
      • Table 20 Largest School Districts & Per-Pupil Spending, FY2018
    • Fiscal 2021 Budgets Approved Amid Change
      • Table Select States with FY2021 K-12 Initiatives or Funding Changes & 2020 Approval Dates
  • For FY 2022, K-12 Support Takes New Forms
    • New York
    • California
    • Florida
    • Illinois
    • Pennsylvania
    • Georgia
    • Michigan
    • Texas
• Market Size & Structure
  • Introduction
  • Industry Finds its (Digital) Footing in 2020
    • Table Sales and Segment Share of Print and Digital Instructional Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2019, 2020, and 2021P ($ in 000,000; ranked by 2021P)
  • Instructional Materials Decrease 2.5% in 2020
  • Providers Adjust to Changing Market
  • More Digital Use
    • Table Some Tools with Increased Use by Students & Educators from the First Week of February to the First Week of April, 2020
    • Educators Use Range of Tools, Focus on Connection
      • Table Centre for Learning and Performance Technolgies' Top 100 Tools in Education 2020
  • Testing Plans Upended
    • COVID-19 Adds to Erosion of State Testing
    • Testing 2021
  • Trade Books in Schools
• Industry Dynamics
  • Introduction
  • AP: Education Net Sales Decline 12% in 2020
    • Table U.S. PreK-12 and Higher Education Instructional Materials Net Sales December and Year-End, 2020 vs. 2019 ($ in 000,000)
  • Operating Performance in the Year of COVID-19
    • Goodheart-Willcox
    • Stride
      • Table Simba Information's PreK-12 Performance Index, 2020 vs. 2019 ($ in 000; ranked by 2020 Operating Margin
    • Scholastic
    • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
    • Discovery Education
    • McGraw Hill
    • Cengage
  • Stockwatch Reflects Difficult Year in 2020
    • Table EER Stockwatch: Company Price per Share 2020
  • Digital Expansion Drives 2020 M&A Activity
    • Table Simba Information's PreK-12 Merger & Acquisition Index, 2020
    • Literacy
    • Traditional Leaders Reshape Their Businesses
    • Technology as Acquisition Driver
  • M&A Pace Accelerates in H1 2021
    • Table Simba Information's PreK-12 Merger & Acquisition Index, H1 2021
• Market Trends
  • Introduction
  • Reopening Plans
    • Table Sample of State Uses for Federal ARP Funding to Reopen Schools, Approved by U.S. Department of Education, 2021
  • Acceleration of Digital Tools; Acceptance of Online Learning
    • Personalized Learning
    • Acceptance of Virtual Schools
  • Curriculum Resources
    • Social Studies
  • Assessment
    • NAEP postponed
• Outlook
  • Introduction
  • Digital/Print Perspective
  • Narrowing the Digital Divide
  • Informed Decision-Making
  • Spending Outlook
    • Table Sales of Print and Digital Instructional Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2020-2024P ($ in 000,000, ranked by 2021P)
• Company Profiles
  • Cambium Learning
    • Pandemic Response
  • Cengage
  • Discovery Education
    • Building Partner Relationships
  • Goodheart-Willcox Company
  • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
  • Kahoot!
    • Pandemic Impact
  • McGraw Hill
  • Pearson
  • Renaissance
    • Pandemic Impact
  • Savvas Learning Company
  • Scholastic Corporation
  • Stride
    • Pandemic Impact

Abstract

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2021-2022

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2021-2022 addresses the opportunities in the PreK-12 school market and the strategies at work in the industry that provides instructional materials to schools.

Simba Information defines the major segments of instructional materials industry—core basal curriculum, courseware, state-level tests, digital supplements, print supplements, manipulatives, trade books, video and classroom magazines—and sizes the individual segments and the overall instructional materials industry, which Simba projects will come in at $9.31 billion in 2021.

The seven-chapter analysis in Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2021-2022 focuses on market trends and the size and structure of the industry. Market conditions examined in the first half include:

• Enrollment, specifically COVID-19-induced changes: school choice, homeschooling, virtual schools.
• Connectivity issues and status at school and at home.
• Federal and state support for PreK-12 education.
• Impact of federal stimulus spending.
• Title I allocations.
• Variances in state per-pupil funding and per-pupil funding in the 20 largest districts.
• Fiscal 2022 funding initiatives in eight of the largest states.

The second half of the report explores the size and structure of the K-12 instructional materials industry, including:

• Sales by industry segments.
• Increased digital development.
• Upended testing plans.
• Operating performance of selected public companies.
• Stock performance of selected public companies.
• Preponderance of digitally-driven M&A activity.

The report concludes with an outlook based on market trends, including:

• Acceleration of digital tools and online learning.
• New focus on social studies.
• Adjustments to state testing requirements.
• Projected sales of instructional materials by segment through 2024.

Additionally, 12 company profiles provide a look at the variety and focus of various providers if instructional materials.