Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2017

Aug 11, 2017
162 Pages - Pub ID: CURP15206320
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Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2017-2018

Since the newest federal education law—Every Student Succeeds Act—was enacted in 2015, states have been devising implementation plans for how to best meet the needs of their PreK-12 students, and the instructional materials industry has been working on how to best help educators put those plans to work and to help students reach achievement goals.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2017-2018 provides the most up-to-date data on enrollment and policy changes at the state and federal levels that are reshaping the school landscape for the coming years.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2017-2018 also examines the strategies publishers are putting into effect and the new products that are emerging to meet the challenges and opportunities in the PreK-12 school market.

Simba Information projects the PreK-12 instructional materials market will reach $8.75 billion in 2017, and the new annual Simba report examines the challenges and opportunities confronting instructional materials providers, beginning with a drive to personalize education for each child, revamping testing policies, implementing new science standards and refocusing on career and technical education.

Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2017-2018
is the latest edition of Simba’s annual comprehensive overview of the PreK-12 market and the instructional materials providers that serve it.

Topics in Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2017-2018 include:

  • Market size by media segment: basal core curriculum, courseware, digital supplements, print supplements, manipulatives, trade books, video, classroom magazines and state summative tests;
  • Drivers of and challenges to growth by segment;
  • Changing demographics of U.S. students;
  • Trends in state funding for education;
  • What subjects schools are spending on;
  • The changing instructional materials adoption landscape;
  • The pace of the uptake of courseware and digital supplements in schools;
  • Detailed market data on schools—public, private, charter, home schools, and virtual schools;
  • What companies have been sold; what companies might be
  • Exclusive 2016 instructional materials adoption data;
  • Competitive analyses of 11 leading publishers;
  • Market segment projections through 2020.
METHODOLOGY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EVERY STUDENT SUCCEEDS ACT KICKS IN
INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS DISAPPOINT IN 2016
BASAL CURRICULUM SALES DECLINE
COURSEWARE GENERATES GROWTH OF 3.7%
STATE TESTS GROW IN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
DIGITAL MEDIA CAPTURES 56.8% SHARE IN 2016
K-12 MARKET TO GROW AT 2.5% CAGR BETWEEN 2016 AND 2020
CHAPTER 1: INDUSTRY SIZE AND STRUCTURE
INTRODUCTION
Table 1.1: Simba Information’s Instructional Materials Segment Definitions
INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS SALES OVERALL DISAPPOINT IN 2016
Weak Adoptions Hamstrung Basal Curriculum Sales
Courseware Generates Growth of 3.7%
Table 1.2: Sales of Print and Digital Instructional Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2015-2017P ($ in millions)
State Tests Grow in Uncertain Environment
Growth of Digital Supplements Stabilizes at 1.4%
Print Supplements Flatten
Manipulatives Have a Strong Year
Novel Approach: Books for Literacy
Video Pulls Back Amid Often Free Competition
Election Year Boosts School Magazines
DIGITAL MEDIA CAPTURES 56.8% SHARE IN 2016
Table 1.3: Market Share of Print & Digital Instructional Media Sold into U.S. PreK-12 Schools, 2015-2017P ($ in millions)
LMSs Facilitate Digital Uptake in Schools
Evolving Learning Environment: Blended Learning
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Table 1.4: Simba Information’s PreK-12 Performance Index, 2016 vs. 2015 ($ in 000; ranked by Operating Margin)
M&A? Big Stories May Be on the Horizon
Table 1.5: Simba Information’s PreK-12 Merger & Acquisition Index, 2016
Table 1.5 continued: Simba Information’s PreK-12 Merger & Acquisition Index, 2016
School Specialty Refinances Debt
Curriculum Associates Transfers Ownership to ISU
CHAPTER 2: ENROLLMENT & DEMOGRAPHICS
INTRODUCTION
Table 2.1: Profile of U.S. School Districts by Size, 2017
PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ON THE RISE
Table 2.2: Trends in Public School Enrollment, 2013-2014 to 2026-2027P
ENROLLMENT PATTERNS VARY ACROSS THE STATES
Table 2.3: Projected Percentage Change in Public School Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Fall 2014 to Fall 2026
PRIVATE ENROLLMENT SEES DECLINING TREND
Table 2.4: Trends in Private School Enrollment, 1995-1996 to 2025-2026P
CHARTER ENROLLMENT RISES
Table 2.5: Charter School Growth, 2004-2005 to 2014-2015
Table 2.6: Percentage of Public School Students Enrolled in Charter Schools, Fall 2014
HOMESCHOOL ENROLLMENT TRENDS UP
Table 2.7: Sources of Homeschool Curriculum, 2016
Table 2.8: Growth in Students Being Homeschooled, 1999-2012
Table 2.9: Number of Students Being Homeschooled by State, 2016-2017
MORE VIRTUAL SCHOOLS, SOME BLENDED SCHOOLS
Table 2.10: Virtual Schools by Operator Status, 2015-2016
Blended Schools
Table 2.11: Blended Schools by Operator Status, 2015-2016
An Opportunity in Lagging Performance
STUDENTS IN POVERTY ARE TARGET FOR VENDORS
Table 2.12 Percentage of Children Under Age 18 in Families Living in Poverty, 2015
Table 2.13: Percentage of Public School Students by School Poverty Level and School Locale, 2014-2015
SCHOOLS BECOME MORE DIVERSE
Table 2.14: Trends in English-Language Learner Enrollment, 2004-2005 to 2014-2015
Table 2.15: Top 10 Languages of ELL Students, 2014-2015
Table 2.16: Percentage of Public School Students who are ELL, 2014-2015
SPECIAL NEEDS STUDENTS REQUIRE SERVICES
Table 2.17: Trends in Youth Receiving IDEA Services, 1990-1991 to 2014-2015
STATE-FUNDED PREK ENROLLMENT SWELLS
Table 2.18: Enrollment Growth in State-Funded Preschool Programs, 2013-2014 to 2015-2016
Table 2.19: Enrollment in State-Funded Preschool, 2015-2016
CHAPTER 3: POLICY & FUNDING
INTRODUCTION
ESSA SETTLED POLICY, THEN TRUMP ELECTED
CHANGING COURSE UNDER TRUMP
FUNDING FOR FY 2017 CONTINUES PRIORITIES
Table 3.1: 2017 Education Department Appropriations FY2016-FY2017 (selected K-12 categories, $ in millions)
CHANGING PRIORITIES FOR FISCAL 2018
Table 3.2: Education Department Appropriations FY2017-FY2018 P (selected K-12 categories, $ in millions)
Where the Cuts Hit
TITLE I’S 50 LARGEST ALLOCATIONS
Table 3.3: 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY 2016 ($ in thousands)
E-RATE SUPPORTS CLASSROOM CONNECTIVITY
What Schools Need from E-Rate
STATE EDUCATION FUNDING LAGS OVER DECADE
Table 3.4: Percent Change in State Formula Funding Per Student, Inflation Adjusted, FY 2008-FY-2017
Table 3.5: Percent Change in State Formula Funding Per Student, Inflation Adjusted, FY 2016-FY-2017
STATES ARE CAUTIOUS WITH FISCAL 2018 SPENDING
STATE-FUNDED PREK GROWS
Table 3.6: Funding for State-Funded Preschool, 2015-2016 (Funding dollars in thousands)
CHAPTER 4: BASAL CURRICULUM & ADOPTIONS
INTRODUCTION
Table 4.1: Core Basal Curriculum Segment Definitions:
SEGMENT SIZE
Table 4.2.: Estimated and Projected Sales of Basal Curriculum ($ in millions)
Core Basal Preference
ADOPTION STATES AND OPEN TERRITORIES
Top Disciplines in Open Territories
Table 4.3: Top 8 Disciplines for Textbooks in Open Territories, 2016 $ in 000
Reading/Language Arts Headlines Sales in Adoption States
Table 4.4: Top 8 Disciplines for Textbooks in Adoption States, 2016 $ in 000
MCGRAW-HILL TOPS 2016 ADOPTION PUBLISHER SCORECARD
Table 4.5: Simba Information's Adoption Publisher Scorecard, 2016 (Sales $ in 000 and rounded; ranked by total sales)
HMH in Second; Pearson in Third
Accelerate Learning on the Rise
ADOPTIONS OUTLOOK IN 2017 AND BEYOND
2017 Adoption Opportunity Is Expected to be Flat to Slightly Improved
CHAPTER 5: DIGITAL INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS: COURSEWARE, SUPPLEMENTS, VIDEO
INTRODUCTION
Table 5.1: Digital Segment Definitions
COURSEWARE: PROVIDERS AND USE GROW
Table 5.2.: Estimated and Projected Sales of Courseware ($ in millions)
More Providers, More Courseware
Facilitating Integration
Schools Consider New Options
DIGITAL SUPPLEMENTS GIVE SCHOOLS OPTIONS
Table 5.3.: Estimated and Projected Sales of Digital Supplements ($ in millions)
Companies Expand Offerings of Digital Supplements
Districts Guide, but Also Empower Teachers
VIDEO USED MORE, PURCHASED LESS
Table 5.4: Estimated and Projected Sales of Educational Video ($ in millions)
CHAPTER 6: OUTLOOK
INTRODUCTION
K-12 MARKET TO GROW AT A 2.5% CAGR BETWEEN 2016 AND 2020
Table 6.1: Sales of Print and Digital Instructional Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2015-2017P ($ in millions)
Basal Curriculum Hits Peak Cycle
Courseware Benefits from Digital Transition
Slow Growth for State Tests
Flat to Slight Growth for Print & Digital Supplements, Video Declines
Manipulatives Have Staying Power
For Reading, Trade Books, Magazines Hang on
CHAPTER 7: COMPANY PROFILES
CAMBIUM LEARNING GROUP
Company Overview
K-12 Publishing Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Cambium Learning Group, 2015-2017P
DISCOVERY EDUCATION
Company Overview
K-12 Publishing Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Discovery Education and Other, 2015-2017P
GOODHEART-WILLCOX
Company Overview
K-12 Publishing Strategy
Improving Sales & Marketing
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Goodheart-Willcox, FY2015-FY2017
HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT
COMPANY OVERVIEW
PreK-12 Publishing Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Education, 2015-2017P
K12 INC.
Company Overview
K-12 Publishing Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: K-12 Inc., FY2015-FY2017
MCGRAW-HILL EDUCATION
Company Overview
PreK-12 (Digital) Publishing Strategy
Adoptions
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: McGraw-Hill School Education Revenue, 2015-2017P
PEARSON
Company Overview
K-12 Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Pearson plc, 2015-2017P
ROSETTA STONE, INC.
Company Overview
K-12 Publishing Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Rosetta Stone, Inc., 2015-2017P
SCHOLASTIC CORP.
Company Overview
PreK-12 Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Scholastic, FY2015-FY2017
SCHOOL SPECIALTY
Company Overview
PreK-12 Curriculum Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: School Specialty, 2015-2017P
SCIENTIFIC LEARNING CORP.
Company Overview
K-12 Publishing Strategy
Financial Summary
Financial Overview: Scientific Learning Corp., 2014-2016P

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