Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2012-2013

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Industry Size and Structure

Introduction

Instructional Materials Sales Decline in 2011

Open Territories Offer No Balance to Textbook Adoption Slump

Steady Erosion in Print Supplements

Courseware Generates Strongest Growth in 2011

Ahead of Common Core Changes, State Level Tests Flatten

Growth Wanes for Modular Software

Manipulatives Maintain Their Niche

Trade Books Maintain Niche in Classroom Shelves

Video Streams into Schools

Classroom Magazines Struggle

Electronic Media Projected to Capture 30% Share in 2012

Pearson Tops Simba’s Publisher Index in 2011

Pearson, HMH & McGraw-Hill Dominate PreK-12 Instructional Materials

ePals and Archipelago Learning Generate the Fastest Growth in 2011

Archipelago Learning Climbs to Top of Operating Performance Index

Table 1.1: U.S. Elementary and Secondary Education At-a-Glance

Table 1.2: Sales of Print & Electronic Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market 2010-2012P

Table 1.3: Market Share of Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2012P

Table 1.4: Simba Information’s PreK-12 U.S. Publisher Index,

2010 vs. 2011 vs. 2012P

Table 1.5: Publisher Operating Performance Index, 2011 vs. 2010

Chapter 2: Enrollment and Demographics

Introduction

Public School Enrollment on the Rise

Decline for Private Enrollment

Charter School Enrollment on the Rise

Enrollment Grows in the West and South

Fastest Growing Counties for K-12 Enrollment

High Poverty Schools Are a Target

Schools Growing More Diverse

Special Needs Students Are a Growing Population

State Funded PreK Grows Slowly

Table 2.1: Total Public PreK-12 Enrollment, 2010-2021P

Table 2.2: Growth in Public Charter School Enrollment

Table 2.3: Public School 2011-2012 Enrollment by State with % Change from 2010-2011

Table 2.4: 25 Counties with Largest Enrollment Increases, 2011-2012

Table 2.5: Students Eligible for Free and Reduced School Lunch in 50 Largest School Districts, 2009

Table 2.6: 25 Districts with Highest Number LEP/ELL Students

Table 2.7: 25 Districts with Highest Number IEP Students

Table 2.8: Preschool Enrollment & Est. Spending Per Child, 2010-2011

Chapter 3: Funding

Introduction

Funding Comes Federal, State and Local

2012 Budget Maintained Educational Funding Levels

2013 Budget Proposed, Passage Unlikely

Title I Helps Low-Achieving Students in High Poverty Areas

Race to the Top Adds Early Learning and District Competitions

Investing in Innovation Continues to Distribute Funds

School Improvement Grants Offer Opportunities

Tapping Special Education Funding

Most Categories of Stimulus Dollars Have Been Spent

Demand for E-Rate Funding Outpaces Availability

State-Level Funding is Volatile

Average State Per-Pupil Spending on Instructional Materials is $250

Preschool Spending Also Cut

Table 3.1: U.S. Dept. of Education Discretionary Spending, FY2011-FY2013P

Table 3.2: U.S. Dept. of Education Title I State Grant Allocations, 2010-2013P

Table 3.3: 50 Largest Title I Allocations to LEAs, FY2011

Table 3.4: Race to the Top 2nd Round Grant Winners

Table 3.5: Race to the Top 3rd Round Grant Winners

Table 3.6: Race to the Top Early Learning Challenge Grant Winners

Table 3.7: School Improvement Grant Allocations, 2010-2013P

Table 3.8: Federal Grants to States for Special Education, FY 2012

Table 3.9: Instructional Materials Expenditures by State, 2009-2010

Table 3.10: Preschool Enrollment & Est. Spending Per Child, 2010-2011

Chapter 4: Textbooks and Adoptions

Introduction

iPads Help Push Textbooks in Digital Direction

Inkling, Slicebooks Aim to Move the Digital Needle

Texas and Florida Show Digital Textbook Uptake is Looming

Common Core Has Potential to Boost Textbook Sales

Textbook Market: Adoption States and open Territories

Reading and Mathematics Lead Disciplines in Sales

Reading/Literature Edges Out Math in 6-12 Segment

Elementary Sales Top Secondary Sales in 2010

Adoption Market Under Pressure To Change

NASTA Becomes SIMRA

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Tops 2010 Adoption Publisher Scorecard

Pearson Secures Second Spot Overall

Adoptions in 2012 and Beyond

Texas Revises Adoption Schedule

Digital Bent to Social Studies Adoption in Florida

Early Purchasing in Florida

California Bridge to CCSS Adoption Gets Under Way

Oklahoma Switches Science and Social Studies Adoptions

Table 4.1: Textbook Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2010 vs. 2011

Table 4.2: Projected Implementation Costs of Common Core

Table 4.3: Top 10 Disciplines for Elementary Textbooks and Materials, 2010

Table 4.4: Top 10 Disciplines for Secondary Textbooks and Materials, 2010

Table 4.5: Elementary and Secondary Instructional Materials Sales, 2010 Top 10 States

Table 4.6: Simba Information’s Adoption Scorecard, 2011

Table 4.7: Texas Instructional Materials Adoption Cycle

Table 4.8: 2012 Adopted Florida K-12 Social Studies Materials

Table 4.9: Submitting Publishers, California Bridge Adoption K-8 mathematics and Language Arts Programs

Chapter 5: Supplementary Materials

Introduction

Supplemental Market Sales Down Slightly

Schools Are Ready for Electronic Supplementals

Courseware Sales Up but Modular Sales Flatten

Video Increasingly Integrated into Instruction

Print Supplements Still a Substantial Market

Trade Books Still Have Classroom Appeal

Magazines Face Challenges

Manipulatives Market Steady

Scholastic Tops Supplemental Publisher List

Future of Supplementals

Common Core Implementation Will Spur Change

Partnership Mean New Options

Schools Develop More Resources for Themselves

What’s a Supplemental Provider to do?

Table 5.1: Sales of Supplemental Instructional Materials to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2010-2012P

Table 5.2: Simba Information’s Supplemental Publisher Index, 2010-2012P

Chapter 6: Outlook and Forecast

Introduction

PreK-12 Instructional Materials to Grow at 1.3% CAGR

Decline to Slow, Growth Resurgence Seen in 2013

Table 6.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2011-2015P

Company Profiles

Cambium Learning Group

Discovery Education

ePals Corp.

Goodheart-Willcox

Triumph Learning (Haights Cross Communications)

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

K12 Inc.

McGraw-Hill Education (The McGraw-Hill Cos.)

Pearson Education

Peoples Education

Scholastic Corp.

School Specialty

Scientific Learning Corp.

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