Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2010

Sep 30, 2009
172 Pages - Pub ID: CURP2088295
Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.
Description Table of Contents Search Inside Report

Table of Contents


Methodology


Executive Summary


Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer Demographics
Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Girls Are Still Reading More Than Boys


Table 1.1: Who Is Buying Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store?
Table 1.2: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Buyer Overview Spring 2007/Winter 2009
Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with No Children in Household vs. One or More
Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with One or More Children in Household
Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buying Books as Gifts
Table 1.7: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store 15


Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing
Introduction
Children’s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: What’s Healthier?
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
The Role of the Internet, Electronic Components Still Evolving
Series Still Rising
Series Case Study: Harry Potter
Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books
Trade Paperback Still Gaining Favor
Motion Picture Tie-Ins
Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children’s


Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2009 vs. 2008
Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
Table 2.4: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun, by Age
Table 2.5: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun
Table 2.6: Percentage of Children Who Read a Book the Previous Day
Table 2.7: Percentage of Time Spent Reading While Using Other Media
Table 2.8: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2004-2009
Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008
Table 2.10: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 2.11: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-2008
Table 2.12: Average Bestselling Titles per Author
Table 2.13: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
Table 2.14: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
Table 2.15: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
Table 2.16: Top 20 Books to Movies, 2002-2008
Table 2.17: Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
Table 2.18: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
Table 2.19: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children’s/YA Titles Found?


Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
Bestselling Books
Bestselling Authors
Leading Imprints
Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
Bestselling Books
Bestselling Authors
Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title


Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2009
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2007-June 2009
Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2008-June 2009


Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts
Introduction
Leading Children’s Publishers
Candlewick
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
HarperCollins
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic
Simon & Schuster
Revenue Trends
Valuation Trends
Size of the Children’s Publishing Market
Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue
First-Half Comparisons, 2008 vs. 2007
Forecast for Balance of 2009 and Beyond


Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2007-2011P
Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2007-2011P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns


Chapter 5: Category Trends
Introduction
The Top Categories
USA Today Bestseller Data
Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released
Children’s/YA Category Analysis
Action & Adventure
Animals
Family & Relationships
Fantasy
Graphic Novel
History
Horror
Horror & Ghost
Humor
People & Places
Religion
Schools & Education
Science Fiction
Social Issues
Social Science
Format Trends


Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.3: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.4: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2004-2008
Table 5.5: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview
Table 5.6: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
Table 5.7: Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure
Table 5.8: Animals Bestseller Performance
Table 5.9: Vital Statistics - Animals
Table 5.10: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships
Table 5.12: Fantasy Bestseller Performance
Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Fantasy
Table 5.14: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel
Table 5.16: History Bestseller Performance
Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - History
Table 5.18: Horror Bestseller Performance
Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - Horror
Table 5.20: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost
Table 5.22: Humor Bestseller Performance
Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Humor
Table 5.24: People & Places Bestseller Performance
Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - People & Places
Table 5.26: Religion Bestseller Performance
Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - Religion
Table 5.28: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education
Table 5.30: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
Table 5.32: Social Issues Bestseller Performance
Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Social Issues
Table 5.34: Social Science Bestseller Performance
Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Social Science
Table 5.36: Total Juvenile Hardcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
Table 5.37: Total Juvenile Softcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
Table 5.38: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2008-2009


Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales
Introduction
Where Books Are Being Purchased
Children’s/YA Through the Lens of Bookstores
Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing
Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains
Barnes & Noble
Borders Group
Books-A-Million
Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains
Superstores and Small Format Store Closings
Online Bookselling
Book Clubs, Fairs and Direct-to-Consumer Sales


Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
Table 6.3: What % of Your Business Is Comprised of Children’s/YA Sales?
Table 6.4: What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
Table 6.5: How Effective Are the Following Children’s/YA Promotional Efforts?
Table 6.6: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2009
Table 6.7: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2004-2008
Table 6.8: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2004-2008
Table 6.9: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008
Table 6.10: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2008
Table 6.11: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2008
Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer


Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions
Conclusions
Other Recommendations


Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits
Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P


Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers
Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins Publishers
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic Corp.
Simon & Schuster
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