Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2011

Sep 30, 2010
160 Pages - Pub ID: CURP2523149
Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.
Description Table of Contents Search Inside Report

Table of Contents


Methodology


Executive Summary


Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer Demographics
Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Who’s Reading the Books?


Table 1.1: Cell Phone Content Allocation for Children
Table 1.2: Who is Buying the Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store?
Table 1.3: When Parent(s) or Adults are buying a Children’s/YA book, who is it usually?
Table 1.4: Who is the second most likely adult buying Children’s/YA books at your store?
Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.8: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.12: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store
Table 1.13: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Gender
Table 1.14: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race
Table 1.15: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket
Table 1.16: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level
Table 1.17: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income
Table 1.18: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status
Table 1.19: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Occupation
Table 1.20: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Adults, Parents and Grandparents
Table 1.21: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Marital Status
Table 1.22: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household


Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing
Introduction
Children’s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade Estimated Net Sales
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
The Role of the Internet, Electronic Components Still Evolving
The Value of Series
Series Author Case Study: Stephenie Meyer
Series Author Case Study: J.K.Rowling
Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books
Trade Paperback Still Gaining Favor
TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important
Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children’s


Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2010 vs. 2009
Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
Table 2.4: Average Amount of Time Spent Reading Print Media (Books)
Table 2.5: A Day in the Life of an 8-18 Year Old Media Consumer
Table 2.6: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2008-2009
Table 2.7: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2009-2010
Table 2.8: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010
Table 2.10: Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight Series by Consolidated Rating, July 2008-December 2009
Table 2.11: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-2008
Table 2.12: Average Bestselling Titles per Author
Table 2.13: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010?
Table 2.14: What Format of Children’s/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010?
Table 2.15: Top Ten Trade Categories (2005-2009)
Table 2.16: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
Table 2.17: Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
Table 2.18: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
Table 2.19: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children’s/YA Titles Found?


Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
Bestselling Books, Authors, Imprints and Categories
Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
Bestselling Books
Bestselling Authors
Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title


Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2010
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2008-June 2010
Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2009-June 2010


Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts
Introduction
Leading Children’s Publishers
Candlewick
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
HarperCollins
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic
Simon & Schuster
Revenue Trends
Valuation Trends
Size of the Children’s Publishing Market
Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue
First-Half Comparisons, 2010 vs. 2008
Forecast for Balance of 2010 and Beyond


Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2011P
Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2008-2012P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns


Chapter 5: Category Trends
Introduction
The Top Categories
USA Today Bestseller Data
Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released
Children’s/YA Category Analysis
Action & Adventure
Animals
Family & Relationships
Fantasy
Graphic Novel
History
Horror
Horror & Ghost
Humor
People & Places
Religion
Schools & Education
Science Fiction
Social Issues
Social Science


Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.3: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010
Table 5.4: Leading USA Today Children’s book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.5: Leading USA Today Children’s book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010
Table 5.6: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2004-2008
Table 5.7: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview
Table 5.8: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
Table 5.9: Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure
Table 5.10: Animals Bestseller Performance
Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Animals
Table 5.12: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships
Table 5.14: Fantasy Bestseller Performance
Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Fantasy
Table 5.16: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel
Table 5.18: History Bestseller Performance
Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - History
Table 5.20: Horror Bestseller Performance
Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - Horror
Table 5.22: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost
Table 5.24: Humor Bestseller Performance
Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - Humor
Table 5.26: People & Places Bestseller Performance
Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - People & Places
Table 5.28: Religion Bestseller Performance
Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - Religion
Table 5.30: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education
Table 5.32: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
Table 5.34: Social Issues Bestseller Performance
Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Social Issues
Table 5.36: Social Science Bestseller Performance
Table 5.37: Vital Statistics - Social Science


Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales
Introduction
Where Books Are Being Purchased
Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing
Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains
Barnes & Noble
Borders Group
Books-A-Million
Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains
Superstores and Small Format Store Closings
Online Bookselling
Amazon.com
The Big Three
Channel Breakdown for All Book Buyers vs. Children’s Book Buyers


Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
Table 6.3: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2009
Table 6.4: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2004-2008
Table 6.5: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2005-2009
Table 6.6: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008
Table 6.7: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2008
Table 6.8: Amazon’s North American Media Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales, 2002-2009
Table 6.9: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2008
Table 6.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer
Table 6.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel Exclusivity by Type of Book Buyer


Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions
Conclusions
Other Recommendations


Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits
Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2011P


Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers
Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins Publishers
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House Inc.
Scholastic Corp.
Simon & Schuster
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